New Hungarian conservative parties will be needed once Orbán has disappeared from power but some think they also have a role to play in ousting him. Hungarians are indeed prone to conservativism but like being cared for by the state. The governing party, FIDESz is closest to their general attitude – except its social policies. Its grip on the economy and communications means that it can be defeated only by mobilising the undecided voters. These parties target them and disappointed FIDESz-voters. They sense that the gap which Orbán and his party occupied with success in 1998 and holds since, is opening again.
After
FIDESz moved to the right, it won four elections. The traditional left and
liberals were fragmented and their bad governance – the country was hard hit by
the 2007-2009 crisis as bad management made it vulnerable – also harmed their
credibility. Surveys show that undecided voters are more conservative.
This makes
it plausible that the force able to replace FIDESz needs the rightwing. Most of
these movements and parties cannot yet gain a lot of publicity, the press only
rarely reports about them positively. Exceptions are, however, accumulating.
In 2015 Zoltán
Kész, an ex-member of FIDESz won the 2015 by-elections in Veszprém, vacated by
a local strongman of FIDESz. Next, another disappointed FIDESz-member, Péter
Márki-Zay won a mayoral by-election in 2018, in Hódmezővásárhely, another
fiefdom of FIDESz. When Márki-Zay founded first a movement, then a party named
“Hungary of all”, Mr Kész joined the board. Other members of the board are also
known and valued both by the voters of the opposition and the right-wing.
The founder
of Új kezdet, (“New start”) is a well known conservative but he resigned to
lead his municipality. The president is MP of LMP, a leftist-green party, whose
faction is called the joint faction of LMP and of “New Start”. A vice president
is independent, another one was member of the leadership of the liberal SzDSz
during its eclipse.
The “New world
popular party -2022” of a past FIDESZ minister and president of the Academy of
Sciences, József Pálinkás started with a professional image (the movement
itself was also called “Responsible Professionals”). They appear sometimes in
the press – signalling also Pálinkás’ ability to break the wall of silence
mentioned. The health expert of the party, who really managed a hospital, is
also often invited in the context of the pandemic to independent media. Their team
features two prominent foreign policy experts and runs a blog with expert contributors.
Peter
Márki-Zay and József Pálinkás are candidates of the primaries in preparation of
the 2022 national elections for prime minister. Whether they win or lose, their
parties and “New Start” may re-create European conservativism in Hungary. A
look at their programmes shows what we can expect from them.
Two of
these parties (“Hungary of all” and “New start”) formulate their vision in
twelve points (the young revolutionaries of the emblematic 1848 revolution and
war of independence also formulated their demands in 12 points). All three aim
to correct the distortions of the FIDESz rule – rule of law, fair and equitable
laws, reinstallation of democratic institutions, the “New world” even outlined a
short term crisis management programme separately from the long term vision.
Each wants to stop corruption and join the European Prosecutor’s Office. “New
world” and “Hungary of all” expressly mention joining the Eurozone.
Supporting
Hungarian minorities in their endeavour to gain their rights within their
country is prominent for “New start” and “New world” while “Hungary of all”
wants them to be proud of a successful Hungary. “New world” also wants the EU
to protect minorities. All three want to make it worth for Hungarians working
abroad to come home.
In terms of
law and political structures, “New start” emphasises the freedom of civil
society and religious communities, “Hungary of all” the freedom of the press
while “New world” argues for autonomous institutions and a smaller state.
Publishing the files of secret agents of the communist regime is part of the
programme of “Hungary of all”.
Economically,
while promising fair competition, “New world” wants more EU funds for SMEs, as
in their view, large companies are advantaged more than their added value would
justify. “Hungary of all” sets on a strong competition authority and calculable
environment. “New start” would reform the system of communal work for the
jobless and would introduce basic revenue for social integration and social
contributions based on needs (including social housing), while “New world” would
prolong jobless support, which is extremely short now. Thus, all envisage some
state role – even the least “dirigiste” “New world”.
“New start”
is the only one to mention abolishing the single key tax system (a
controversial topic).
Development
of the countryside (including providing schools with local produces) is important
for “New world” while “New start” emphasises the importance of local
authorities. Sustainability takes an important place in the programmes of “New
world” and “New start”.
Education
and health are prominent in all programmes with a significant role of the
state. “New world” strives for digitisation and spending comparable to leading
countries.
As European
conservatives have to clarify their attitude to Hungary, they should not forget
the real conservatives there. Many of Hungarian voters are waiting for it.
